Donald Trump

CBP did report historically low illegal-crossing figures during Trump’s second term—for example, on April 1, 2025 it said March 2025 had the lowest southwest border crossings in history, and on July 15, 2025 it said June 2025 had the lowest monthly total encounters in CBP history. Those official statistics support a claim of very low recent crossings, but the broader superlative that the U.S. 'now has the strongest and most secure border in American history' is not a precise, independently defined metric and goes beyond what the underlying data can conclusively prove across all eras and dimensions of border security.

The claim that the border is the "strongest and most secure in American history" is an exaggeration, though data from early 2026 shows a significant decrease in illegal crossings. In January 2026, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 34,626 total encounters nationwide, with 6,070 Border Patrol apprehensions on the southwest border, a 79% decrease from January 2025. Data for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 (Oct-Dec 2025) showed the lowest number of southwest border apprehensions to start a fiscal year on record. DHS and CBP officials have characterized this as "the most secure border in American history." However, the phrase "strongest and most secure in American history" is difficult to prove definitively, as historical data collection methods vary and other metrics beyond apprehensions (like got-aways, drug seizures, and resourcing) contribute to overall security. While current enforcement has led to historically low encounter numbers, calling it the most secure ever is a subjective assessment.

CBP and DHS data confirm that in any recent nine-month period, thousands of individuals have been admitted into the U.S. after illegal entry, including through processing at the southwest border and parole programs. Zero admissions is contradicted by official statistics for both encounter releases and border parolees.

The claim that zero unauthorized immigrants have been admitted to the United States over any nine-month period is false. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data consistently shows hundreds of thousands of encounters with individuals crossing the border each month. These encounters include apprehensions and expulsions, but also cases where individuals are deemed inadmissible or released pending immigration proceedings. CBP statistics, which are a primary source for this data, report these numbers monthly and do not show any period with zero encounters or admissions.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection data reports thousands of migrant encounters monthly, including illegal entries; from May 2025 to February 2026, encounters exceeded hundreds of thousands, contradicting the claim of zero illegal aliens admitted or entering the United States.

CBP fentanyl seizure data show that the amount of fentanyl seized at the border has generally increased year-over-year. There is no record of a 56% annual decline; in fact, 2023 set new records for seizures. The claim of a record drop is contradicted by the data.

Trump's claim that core inflation was 1.7% in the last three months of 2025 is contradicted by primary and secondary data from the speech-era window. According to BEA data reported on Feb 20, 2026, core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025 (up from 2.8% in November), and on a Q4/Q4 basis core PCE rose 2.9% in Q4 2025. Core CPI was even higher: the US Inflation Calculator, citing BLS, reports the core CPI rate for December 2025 was 3.6% year-over-year, with a 2.8% average for 2025. Even on alternative bases (3-month annualized, trimmed mean), no mainstream measure for Oct–Dec 2025 came near 1.7%; core PCE MoM in December 2025 was 0.4% (roughly 4.8% annualized). The 1.7% figure does not match any standard core inflation reading for Q4 2025.

Primary federal inflation sources do not support Trump’s February 24, 2026 claim. For the last available months of 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported U.S. CPI 'all items less food and energy' (core CPI) up 2.6% year-over-year in November 2025 and 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, not 1.7%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis likewise reported core PCE inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025. BLS also states that it did not publish an October 2025 all-items-less-food-and-energy estimate because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, so there is no official October 2025 core CPI reading that could make 'the last three months of 2025' equal 1.7%. Given the official 2025 data points dated December 18, 2025 (for November CPI), January 13, 2026 (for December CPI), and January 30, 2026 (for December PCE), the claim is contradicted by the relevant speech-era evidence.

Official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows the year-over-year core inflation rate was 2.6% in both November and December 2025. [1, 2] The BLS did not collect or report CPI data for October 2025 due to a lapse in federal appropriations. [2, 23] There is no publicly available data from the BLS that supports the claim that core inflation was down to 1.7% during the last three months of 2025; the actual reported figures were significantly higher.

AAA data confirm that during Joe Biden's presidency, California's average gas price reached $6.43 per gallon on June 14, 2022, well above $6/gallon. The national average peaked at about $5.02 in mid-June 2022 (with weekly highs around $5.11), and several Western states saw averages exceeding $6, including Hawaii and California. So Trump's claim that gasoline reached over $6 per gallon in some states under Biden is accurate.

During the Biden administration, average prices for regular unleaded gasoline did exceed $6 per gallon in some states. Data from AAA and other sources show that in June 2022, the average price in California surpassed this mark, reaching a record high of $6.44.

EIA data confirms that under the Biden administration (2021-2024), retail gasoline prices peaked over $6 per gallon in some states, notably California where prices reached up to $6.44 in June 2022, amid national averages hitting $5.006, driven by high crude oil prices and regional factors.

The 250th anniversary of American independence (the Declaration of Independence was signed July 4, 1776) falls on July 4, 2026. From February 24, 2026, that is approximately 4 months and 10 days away — less than five months. Trump himself stated 'Less than five months from now, our country will celebrate an epic milestone in American history, the 250th anniversary of our glorious American independence' and that 'This July 4th, we will mark two and a half centuries.' The mathematical and historical facts confirm the claim.

The claim is correct. The National Park Service states that the United States will celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence in 2026, with events specifically marked for Saturday, July 4, 2026. From the speech date of February 24, 2026, to July 4, 2026, is 130 days—about 4 months and 10 days—so it is indeed less than five months away.

The United States Declaration of Independence was signed on July 4, 1776. The 250th anniversary, also known as the Semiquincentennial, will therefore be on July 4, 2026. The period from the speech date of February 24, 2026, to July 4, 2026, is approximately four months and ten days, which is correctly described as "less than five months."

The Declaration of Independence was signed on July 4, 1776, making July 4, 2026, the 250th anniversary. The period from February 24, 2026, to July 4, 2026, is approximately 4 months and 10 days, which is less than five months, as confirmed by multiple sources including the U.S. Department of State and Wikipedia entries dated around 2026.

Trump's claim that he inherited inflation 'at record levels' when he took office in January 2025 is false. On an annual basis, inflation when Trump took office was 2.9%, which isn't a record high level. Recent record inflation was experienced in 2022, when it hit 8.9%. The highest inflation ever experienced happened in the 1980s, when it reached as high as around 14%. Inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1% in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By the time President Joe Biden left office, inflation had fallen to 3%. Inflation was around 3% — far from a record high — when Trump was inaugurated.

At the time Trump was speaking about what he had inherited around February 2025, inflation was not at record levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on February 12, 2025, that the January 2025 CPI was up 3.0% year over year. That is elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but nowhere near the modern U.S. record highs seen in 2022, when CPI inflation peaked around 9.1% year over year in June 2022. So describing the inherited inflation situation in early 2025 as being at “record levels” is contradicted by BLS data aligned to that term and date.

Donald Trump's second term began in January 2025. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and reports citing its data, the annual inflation rate (CPI) was 3.0% in January 2025 and fell to 2.8% in February 2025. These figures are not record levels. The highest recorded inflation rate in U.S. history was 23.7% in June 1920, with other peaks of 20.1% in 1947 and 14.8% in 1980. Even the more recent peak was 9.1% in June 2022, more than triple the rate in early 2025.

BLS data for January and February 2025 shows the CPI-U increased by 3.0% from January 2024 to January 2025 and 2.8% from February 2024 to February 2025, which are not record levels; historical record highs were around 14.8% in March 1980, and recent peaks were 9.1% in June 2022, making the inherited inflation rates relatively moderate rather than at record highs.

FBI data show the national murder rate recorded the largest one-year decline in homicides, down 14.9 percent from 2023 to 2024, with back-to-back years of historic declines after the murder rate declined by 10 percent from 2022 to 2023. However, Trump in his February 2026 speech was likely referring to 2025 (the year his administration was in office). Over the past three years, homicides have fallen by an average of 16% per year, including a 21% drop from 2024 to 2025 in a sample of 35 large cities, suggesting the U.S. homicide rate in 2025 would be the lowest observed since at least 1900. Independent researchers' preliminary estimates support a historic decline; preliminary data suggests that homicides may have hit a 125-year low last year, although the FBI's official annual crime report for 2025 will not be released until later this year. The FBI's 2024 data already showed the largest one-year decline ever recorded; whether 2025 surpassed that remains preliminary.

The best available primary evidence supports the substance of the claim, with some caution about wording. The FBI reported on August 5, 2025, that murder and non-negligent manslaughter in 2024 fell 14.9% from 2023. The FBI had separately reported on September 23, 2024, that the 2023 murder rate fell 11.6% from 2022. Among the FBI declines surfaced here, the 2024 drop is larger, supporting Trump's statement that the prior year saw the biggest recorded decline. However, because the claim says 'murder rate' while the FBI release is framed as estimated murder offenses, and because historical-record formulations can depend on dataset definitions and revisions, the safest verdict is Mostly True rather than fully categorical True.

Independent researcher analyses support this claim with caveats about preliminary data. If a similar decline is reflected in national data, the U.S. homicide rate in 2025 would be the lowest observed since at least 1900. Applying a 20% decline from 2024 to 2025 suggests a national homicide rate of 4.0 per 100,000 residents in 2025, eclipsing the previous historic low of 4.4 per 100,000 recorded in 2014. Preliminary data from independent researchers suggests that homicides may have hit a 125-year low last year, although the FBI's official annual crime report for 2025 will not be released until later this year. A January study by the Council on Criminal Justice found a 'strong possibility' that the 2025 homicide rate will drop to about 4 per 100,000 residents, which would be the lowest recorded in law enforcement or public health data dating back to 1900. The claim is directionally correct but rests on preliminary projections, not confirmed FBI data.

Reports from early 2026, such as from Axios, BBC, and Fox News, indicate that the U.S. murder rate in 2025 reached its lowest level since 1900 at approximately 4.29 per 100,000 people; however, the claim refers to the rate in February 2026, and while trends suggest continuation, full 2026 data is not yet available, making the statement accurate for the most recent complete year but slightly premature for 2026.

The core CPI claim is technically supportable for the January 2026 reading. The CPI rose 2.4% in January from a year earlier, down from 2.7% in December. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI was up 2.5%, the lowest level since April 2021. Core inflation was 2.5% in January 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the lowest since 1.6% in March 2021 – nearly five years ago. So core inflation is at roughly a five-year low (just under five years from April 2021 to January 2026). However, fact-checkers note nuance: while it's true that inflation has eased in recent months, federal data does not show as dramatic a decline as Trump has claimed. Trump's accompanying claim that core inflation was 1.7% in the last three months of 2025 is disputed: core inflation was 2.6 percent in both November and December and 2.5 percent in January — down from 3.3 percent in January 2025. Trump cited the last three months of 2025, which would have included October, but BLS did not release a figure for October because of the government shutdown.

Primary BLS data support the broad claim. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that core CPI ('all items less food and energy') was 2.5% year over year in January 2026 and again 2.5% in February 2026. That is the lowest core inflation rate in more than five years, because by early 2021 core CPI had already moved above that level and then remained higher through the 2021-2025 inflation surge. So within roughly 12 months of taking office on January 20, 2025, core inflation had fallen to a five-plus-year low. The nuance is that saying his administration 'drove' it down assigns full causal credit to the administration for a trend the data alone do not prove was caused solely by White House policy.

According to reports citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the annual core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, was 2.5% in February 2026. This was a decrease from the 3.1% rate reported by the BLS for the 12 months ending in February 2025, confirming that core inflation was driven down during the first year of the second Trump administration. However, the claim that this is the lowest level in "more than five years" is a slight exaggeration. The 2.5% rate was widely reported as the lowest since March 2021, which is 4 years and 11 months prior to the speech, just shy of the five-year mark.