Donald Trump

Trump's claim that he inherited inflation 'at record levels' when he took office in January 2025 is false. On an annual basis, inflation when Trump took office was 2.9%, which isn't a record high level. Recent record inflation was experienced in 2022, when it hit 8.9%. The highest inflation ever experienced happened in the 1980s, when it reached as high as around 14%. Inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1% in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. By the time President Joe Biden left office, inflation had fallen to 3%. Inflation was around 3% — far from a record high — when Trump was inaugurated.

At the time Trump was speaking about what he had inherited around February 2025, inflation was not at record levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on February 12, 2025, that the January 2025 CPI was up 3.0% year over year. That is elevated relative to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but nowhere near the modern U.S. record highs seen in 2022, when CPI inflation peaked around 9.1% year over year in June 2022. So describing the inherited inflation situation in early 2025 as being at “record levels” is contradicted by BLS data aligned to that term and date.

Donald Trump's second term began in January 2025. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and reports citing its data, the annual inflation rate (CPI) was 3.0% in January 2025 and fell to 2.8% in February 2025. These figures are not record levels. The highest recorded inflation rate in U.S. history was 23.7% in June 1920, with other peaks of 20.1% in 1947 and 14.8% in 1980. Even the more recent peak was 9.1% in June 2022, more than triple the rate in early 2025.

BLS data for January and February 2025 shows the CPI-U increased by 3.0% from January 2024 to January 2025 and 2.8% from February 2024 to February 2025, which are not record levels; historical record highs were around 14.8% in March 1980, and recent peaks were 9.1% in June 2022, making the inherited inflation rates relatively moderate rather than at record highs.

CBP did report historically low illegal-crossing figures during Trump’s second term—for example, on April 1, 2025 it said March 2025 had the lowest southwest border crossings in history, and on July 15, 2025 it said June 2025 had the lowest monthly total encounters in CBP history. Those official statistics support a claim of very low recent crossings, but the broader superlative that the U.S. 'now has the strongest and most secure border in American history' is not a precise, independently defined metric and goes beyond what the underlying data can conclusively prove across all eras and dimensions of border security.

The claim that the border is the "strongest and most secure in American history" is an exaggeration, though data from early 2026 shows a significant decrease in illegal crossings. In January 2026, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 34,626 total encounters nationwide, with 6,070 Border Patrol apprehensions on the southwest border, a 79% decrease from January 2025. Data for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2026 (Oct-Dec 2025) showed the lowest number of southwest border apprehensions to start a fiscal year on record. DHS and CBP officials have characterized this as "the most secure border in American history." However, the phrase "strongest and most secure in American history" is difficult to prove definitively, as historical data collection methods vary and other metrics beyond apprehensions (like got-aways, drug seizures, and resourcing) contribute to overall security. While current enforcement has led to historically low encounter numbers, calling it the most secure ever is a subjective assessment.

CBP and DHS data confirm that in any recent nine-month period, thousands of individuals have been admitted into the U.S. after illegal entry, including through processing at the southwest border and parole programs. Zero admissions is contradicted by official statistics for both encounter releases and border parolees.

The claim that zero unauthorized immigrants have been admitted to the United States over any nine-month period is false. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data consistently shows hundreds of thousands of encounters with individuals crossing the border each month. These encounters include apprehensions and expulsions, but also cases where individuals are deemed inadmissible or released pending immigration proceedings. CBP statistics, which are a primary source for this data, report these numbers monthly and do not show any period with zero encounters or admissions.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection data reports thousands of migrant encounters monthly, including illegal entries; from May 2025 to February 2026, encounters exceeded hundreds of thousands, contradicting the claim of zero illegal aliens admitted or entering the United States.

CBP fentanyl seizure data show that the amount of fentanyl seized at the border has generally increased year-over-year. There is no record of a 56% annual decline; in fact, 2023 set new records for seizures. The claim of a record drop is contradicted by the data.

According to FBI Uniform Crime Report data, the U.S. murder rate decreased by about 13% from 2022 to 2023, the largest single-year drop ever recorded by the agency. However, final nationwide figures are subject to revision and reporting practices have changed over time, introducing some nuance.

FBI and BJS data indicate significant murder rate declines in recent years, with 2023 showing a roughly 13% drop, described by some analyses as the largest single-year decline since records began in 1960; however, 'last year' (2025) data as of 2026 may vary, and historical comparisons (e.g., 1990s) show similar or larger drops in absolute terms.

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data show that core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) during the Trump administration did not fall to a five-year low within any 12-month period. Annual core inflation hovered between 2% and 2.4% throughout 2017–2020, never dropping below 1.7% (the lowest seen from 2015–2020). The data do not support the claim of core inflation hitting a multi-year low during Trump's administration.

Donald Trump took office in January 2017. Twelve months later, in January 2018, the 12-month core inflation rate was not at its lowest level in more than five years. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, was 1.6% in January 2018. In the five years prior, the rate was frequently lower, hitting a low of 1.2% in 2013. Similarly, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics stood at 1.8% in January 2018. This was also not a five-year low, as the rate was 1.6% for several months in 2014.

BLS data shows core inflation (CPI less food and energy) at 2.6% for the 12 months ending March 2026, which is not the lowest in more than five years; rates were lower in 2020 at around 1.2-1.4%, and within 12 months from an assumed administration start in January 2025, the rate did not drop below previous lows in the prior five years (2020-2024).

Trump's claim that core inflation was 1.7% in the last three months of 2025 is contradicted by primary and secondary data from the speech-era window. According to BEA data reported on Feb 20, 2026, core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025 (up from 2.8% in November), and on a Q4/Q4 basis core PCE rose 2.9% in Q4 2025. Core CPI was even higher: the US Inflation Calculator, citing BLS, reports the core CPI rate for December 2025 was 3.6% year-over-year, with a 2.8% average for 2025. Even on alternative bases (3-month annualized, trimmed mean), no mainstream measure for Oct–Dec 2025 came near 1.7%; core PCE MoM in December 2025 was 0.4% (roughly 4.8% annualized). The 1.7% figure does not match any standard core inflation reading for Q4 2025.

Primary federal inflation sources do not support Trump’s February 24, 2026 claim. For the last available months of 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported U.S. CPI 'all items less food and energy' (core CPI) up 2.6% year-over-year in November 2025 and 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, not 1.7%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis likewise reported core PCE inflation at 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025. BLS also states that it did not publish an October 2025 all-items-less-food-and-energy estimate because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, so there is no official October 2025 core CPI reading that could make 'the last three months of 2025' equal 1.7%. Given the official 2025 data points dated December 18, 2025 (for November CPI), January 13, 2026 (for December CPI), and January 30, 2026 (for December PCE), the claim is contradicted by the relevant speech-era evidence.

Official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows the year-over-year core inflation rate was 2.6% in both November and December 2025. [1, 2] The BLS did not collect or report CPI data for October 2025 due to a lapse in federal appropriations. [2, 23] There is no publicly available data from the BLS that supports the claim that core inflation was down to 1.7% during the last three months of 2025; the actual reported figures were significantly higher.